Africa Bets on Small Solar Panels to Bridge the Electricity Gap

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates, November 8, 2026 – Africa is entering a new phase of its energy transition, where small-scale solar panels are outpacing large-scale power plant projects. This shift is driven by persistent electricity crises and a growing demand for local, independent energy sources.

While the continent records unprecedented growth in renewable energy capacity, international forecasts reveal a striking paradox. Despite possessing vast potential for clean electricity generation, Africa continues to capture only a marginal share of the global investments and new capacities being deployed worldwide.

According to data from the International Renewable Energy Agency, Africa recorded its largest annual increase in renewable energy production capacity in 2025, adding 11.3 gigawatts. This represented a 15.9% rise, bringing the continent’s total installed capacity to approximately 82.4 gigawatts.

However, this surge accounted for just 1.6% of the 693 gigawatts of new capacity added globally during the same year. This disparity underscores the persistent gap between Africa’s natural potential and the financial and technological resources directed toward harnessing it.

The International Energy Agency’s latest projections, detailed in its “Renewables 2026” report released on November 6, indicate that this shift is likely to accelerate over the next five years, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. The agency has raised its forecast for renewable capacity growth in the region by 54% compared to its previous estimates.

According to the report, solar photovoltaic power is expected to account for more than 80% of the new renewable energy capacity coming online in sub-Saharan Africa between 2026 and 2031. This trend reinforces the position of solar energy as the fastest-growing source in African electricity markets.

This expansion is not primarily driven by massive utility-scale solar plants, but rather by decentralized infrastructure. This includes rooftop panels installed on homes and businesses, as well as standalone systems that operate independently of traditional power grids.

The report projects that the capacity of these systems will increase by 42 gigawatts during the specified period. Consequently, the agency has increased its overall forecast for solar power in the region by approximately 36 gigawatts.

These figures reflect a fundamental change in electricity demand patterns. Solar energy expansion is no longer solely tied to major government policies; it has become a direct response to the needs of households and economic entities seeking more reliable power sources that are less vulnerable to grid outages.

In many sub-Saharan African nations, limited grid coverage and unreliable power supplies have become significant barriers to productive activities and essential services, compelling consumers to seek individual or collective solutions to meet their energy needs.

While optimism grows around the future of decentralized solar power, the outlook for large-scale utility plants appears less promising. The International Energy Agency has recently lowered its projections for new capacity from such projects by approximately 7 gigawatts.

The agency attributes this downward revision to difficulties in securing necessary financing, alongside weak infrastructure for electricity transmission and distribution. These factors constrain the ability of major projects to move from the planning phase into actual construction and operation.

This contrast highlights a structural challenge facing Africa’s energy transition. In many cases, generating electricity from the sun is no longer the primary technical hurdle. Instead, the focus has shifted to financing investments and developing robust grids capable of absorbing new generation and transmitting it to consumption centers.

Furthermore, while the expansion of standalone systems is crucial for improving access to electricity, it does not eliminate the need for strong national grids. Such infrastructure remains essential to provide stable power to heavy industry and urban centers.

The International Energy Agency projects that South Africa and Nigeria will together account for nearly half of the new renewable energy capacity expected to be installed in sub-Saharan Africa by 2031.

This concentration highlights disparities among African markets in terms of electricity demand, the ability to attract investment, the development of regulatory frameworks, and the readiness of infrastructure.

Conversely, the proliferation of small-scale solar systems opens opportunities for countries with limited grid networks, particularly in rural and remote areas, where decentralized solutions may be less costly and faster to implement than extending traditional power lines over long distances.

Agency forecasts indicate that the contribution of photovoltaic solar power to electricity generation in sub-Saharan Africa will rise from approximately 3% currently to 11% by 2031, while the share of wind power is expected to reach 7%.

Nevertheless, hydropower will retain its position as the largest renewable source of electricity generation in the region, with a contribution approaching one-third of total power supply.

Energy Security

Africa’s shift toward small-scale solar panels is part of a broader global trend aimed at bolstering energy security and reducing reliance on imported fuels. This acceleration comes amid significant disruptions in oil and gas markets, rising concerns over price volatility, and the fragility of supply chains.

The International Energy Agency projects that global renewable energy capacity will increase by approximately 4,800 gigawatts between 2026 and 2031. This represents a rise of nearly 60 percent compared to the previous six years, with solar power expected to account for more than three-quarters of this expansion.

Consequently, the transition to renewable energy is no longer driven solely by environmental considerations. It has become a core component of economic security strategies and efforts to reduce energy dependency, at a time when local energy sources are increasingly valued for their ability to shield economies from external shocks.

For Africa, these developments present an opportunity to expand electricity access and enhance the competitiveness of economic activities. However, they also pose challenges for governments, including the need to secure affordable financing, upgrade grid infrastructure, and regulate markets for independent solar systems.

Caught between a surge in small-scale solar installations and the stagnation of some major power plants, the future of renewable electricity on the continent will not be determined by solar abundance alone. It will depend on the ability of nations to convert that abundance into reliable, affordable power that supports production and narrows the electricity gap that continues to hinder development across large parts of Africa.