BloombergNEF Forecasts 2026 US Record Additions in Solar, Wind, and Storage — Denkmstrom

BloombergNEF forecasts a record 89 gigawatts of new solar, wind, and storage capacity in the United States in 2026, with the figure expected to exceed this level in 2027. The primary drivers are expiring tax credits and the surging power demand from data centers, which is also accelerating the expansion of natural gas power plants.

According to Bloomberg, the key factors are a race among developers to secure expiring federal tax credits and the sharply rising electricity demand from data centers.

Background: A deadline in tax law

The backdrop is a statutory deadline outlined by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) in a 2025 notice. According to the IRS notice, the relevant wind and solar facilities must have commenced construction before July 5, 2026, if they are scheduled to come online after December 31, 2027, in order to remain eligible for the tax credit. The notice defines the start of construction as the initiation of physical work of a substantial nature; preparatory activities do not qualify, even if their costs are included in the facility’s depreciable basis. Additionally, the agency requires a continuous construction program. In an example provided by the IRS, this continuity is considered satisfied if construction begins on August 20, 2025, and the facility is operational by December 31, 2029.

Solar and storage are driving the expansion

According to Bloomberg, solar energy is expected to account for the largest share of new clean power generation in 2026 as well, with analysts projecting installations of 48.9 gigawatts for the year alone. For comparison, the EIA annual report indicated that a total of 29,644.6 megawatts of new utility-scale solar thermal and photovoltaic capacity was added in 2025. BloombergNEF raised its forecast for onshore wind power through 2036 by 15 percent to 99.7 gigawatts, and for battery storage by 35 percent to 383 gigawatts. Federal incentives for storage are expected to remain in place, while support for some renewable energy projects is set to expire. Announced corporate contracts for clean power totaled more than 15 gigawatts through August, according to BloombergNEF, with nearly three-quarters of that volume attributed to Meta Platforms and Google.

Solar and storage are increasingly growing together: According to an EIA analysis, as of September 2026, more than 16 percent of the utility-scale solar capacity added in 2026 was co-located with operational battery storage at the same site, compared to just 2 percent in 2017. The EIA notes that reported plans for solar additions in the fourth quarter of 2026 suggest this share could rise to 19 percent for the full year, while plans filed for 2027 and 2028 already exceed 30 percent. Operators can direct solar output to the grid or to the battery depending on wholesale prices, thereby managing the economic value of the facility in response to price fluctuations. Solar photovoltaics now account for 13 percent of total US utility-scale generation capacity, with 18 percent of that capacity co-located with storage.

Natural gas is also growing significantly

According to Bloomberg, the expansion of natural gas is eroding the climate benefits of renewable energy development. The 67.8 gigawatts of potential new gas capacity cited by BloombergNEF are distributed over the period through 2030, while the expected 89 gigawatts of solar, wind, and storage capacity refer solely to the year 2026. Report author Hall Welborn continues to view data centers as a tailwind for renewable energy overall, but notes that this is being clouded by the growing pipeline of gas projects. A separate analysis by the Environmental Defense Fund and Atlas Public Policy recorded a 23.5-gigawatt increase in planned and under-construction gas power plant capacity in the first half of 2026, bringing the total to 68.3 gigawatts. Fossil fuels thus accounted for 29 percent of planned power plant capacity, compared to 9 percent at the end of 2022. In the same half-year, developers canceled 14.9 gigawatts of planned or under-construction clean power capacity, according to the Environmental Defense Fund, with solar and battery projects accounting for nearly all of the canceled capacity. Meanwhile, BloombergNEF lowered its forecast for utility-scale solar installations from 2026 to 2036 due to new tariffs

and the expiration of tax credits by 7.5 percent to 430 gigawatts.

What could slow down the buildout

According to Bloomberg, developers are simultaneously grappling with more expensive financing, trade barriers, and uncertainty regarding the cost and availability of equipment. BloombergNEF further expects that the U.S. gas industry could shift from a production surplus to a deficit as early as 2028 due to demand from data centers, even though the United States is the world’s largest natural gas supplier.